📊 Recent Form
Liberia
Sierra Leone
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. a draw edge it at 39% against 39% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–0 points to Liberia while the probabilities favour a draw. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have a draw at 39% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 30% — a gap in our favour of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberia Win | 6/4 2.55 | 36% | 32% | -4% |
| Draw Value | 2/1 3.08 | 30% | 39% | +9% |
| Sierra Leone Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 29% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Liberia averaging 0.72 goals scored at home, Sierra Leone averaging 1.08 overall but only drawing or losing away recently
H2H: 1.6 goals/game average across last 8 meetings — historically tight fixture, neutral dominance
Stakes: International friendly with nothing concrete at stake — motivation is modest for both sides, slightly favouring a conservative approach
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Extremely balanced H2H with 3 wins each and 2 draws across 8 meetings. Recent meetings all decided by a single goal (1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 1-0), confirming this is a consistently tight, low-scoring rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.