📊 Recent Form
Lillestrom
Brann
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Brann edge it at 39% against 25% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Brann at 39% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 34% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Lillestrom turned the script on its head in a five-goal thriller against Brann, storming to a 3-2 win that nobody saw coming. Our model had tipped a Brann victory on the road, predicting a 1-2 scoreline and giving the visitors a 39% chance of taking all three points. Instead, the hosts flipped the narrative entirely, with Felix Vá grabbing a crucial brace to settle it.
The match lit up early when Fredrik Gulbrandsen put Lillestrom ahead in the 23rd minute off the back of Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim's assist. Brann levelled through Kristian Eriksen at the hour mark, but the home side refused to let that reset the balance. Vá restored Lillestrom's lead in the 64th minute—again with Nyheim picking out the assist—before adding a second at 80 to seal it. Noah Jean Holm pulled one back for Brann in the 86th, but it came too late. Our model had leaned toward a tighter, Brann-favored affair, weighted heavily on their better recent form at both ends and their dominance in the head-to-head record. The stakes were high for both sides hunting European qualification, and that competitive edge came through in an end-to-end game. But Lillestrom's clinical finishing and Nyheim's creative play in midfield proved the difference on the night. A clear miss for our forecast—but a deserved three points for the hosts nonetheless.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom Win | 5/4 2.27 | 41% | 36% | -5% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| Brann Win Value | 7/4 2.73 | 34% | 39% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 Lillestrom in European race (P6)
- 🇪🇺 Brann in European race (P7)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Lillestrom averaging 1.3 scored / 2.43 conceded; Brann averaging 1.72 scored / 1.70 conceded, better on both ends
H2H: Brann dominant — 5 wins from last 7, fixture averages 3 goals per game
Stakes: Both clubs chasing European qualification (P6 vs P7), high motivation on each side keeping it competitive
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Brann have won 5 of the last 7 meetings including consecutive away wins at Lillestrom (0-2, 0-2) and the fixture consistently produces goals averaging 3 per game — away dominance is a strong pattern here.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.