Real Sociedad dismantled Lillestrom with a ruthless 6-0 victory in a one-sided Europa League knockout that bore little resemblance to the competitive contest our model had anticipated. Sergio Gómez opened the scoring in the 25th minute with an assist from Mikel Oyarzabal, then doubled his tally just two minutes later with another Oyarzabal setup. Luka Sučić made it three in the 33rd minute, also from Oyarzabal's assist, to leave Lillestrom reeling at the break. A penalty converted by Thomas Lehne Olsen offered brief respite in the 50th minute, but Real Sociedad simply took over from there. Orri Steinn Óskarsson added a fourth in the 64th minute courtesy of Gonçalo Guedes, Sučić grabbed his second in the 72nd minute, and Arsen Zakharyan rounded out the rout with a sixth in the 80th, assisted by Benat Turrientes.

Our model got the direction right—it did lean toward a Real Sociedad win—but assigned that outcome just 37% probability and predicted a much tighter scoreline of 1-2. The actual result obliterated that expectation. Before kickoff, the model saw Lillestrom's mixed recent form and patchy home record against Real Sociedad's stronger overall shape and excellent away run; those underlying factors pointed toward a competitive tie with Real Sociedad favoured narrowly. What unfolded instead was a complete capitulation. Lillestrom simply had no answer to Real Sociedad's attacking pace and precision, especially down the flanks where Oyarzabal and Guedes carved them apart repeatedly. A single penalty wasn't enough to flatter the designated home side.