Lillestrom dominated Sandefjord 3-1 on home turf, though the scoreline told a more dramatic story than our pre-match forecast suggested. Leger Ranger opened the scoring in the 13th minute to set the hosts on their way, but Sandefjord mounted an unlikely response when Nicolas Moller equalized in the 50th minute. The away side's resistance crumbled thereafter. Glenn Nyheim restored Lillestrom's lead in the 84th minute, and Lars Alperud sealed victory deep into injury time after a Felix Va assist, securing a comfortable win that keeps the hosts' top-two ambitions alive.

Our model predicted a 2-0 scoreline with 71 percent confidence in a Lillestrom victory, so we correctly called the result direction but underestimated the final margin. The prediction leaned on Lillestrom's strong home form and Sandefjord's defensive vulnerabilities, factors that ultimately held true—the hosts did create enough to justify their dominance. What we didn't anticipate was Sandefjord's brief moment of attacking threat in the second half. We'd flagged that both-teams-to-score was unlikely given the visitors' 0.78 xG average, yet Moller's goal materialized regardless. The late red card to Zeljko Smajlovic in the 87th minute exacerbated Sandefjord's collapse, though by then Lillestrom had already taken decisive control. The match ultimately ran closer to what the Poisson model had suggested pre-kick-off, serving as a reminder that even well-founded predictions can miss the rhythm of a live contest.