📊 Recent Form
Livingston
Queen's Park
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Livingston edge it at 39% against 39% for the draw and 22% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 2–2 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Livingston. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Livingston took all three points with a 2-0 win over Queen's Park, with Muirhead doing the business twice. He opened the scoring in the 50th minute with an assist from Sinclair, then added a second in the 77th through Pittman's setup. Queen's Park couldn't find a way through and left empty-handed.
Our model predicted a 2-2 draw, giving Livingston a 39% chance of winning alongside a 39% lean toward a stalemate. The actual result—a Livingston victory—sat at just 39% in the pre-match probabilities, so it was a plausible outcome but not the favourite. We'd weighted both teams to score and expected goals to land around 2.5, which didn't pan out. Queen's Park managed to stay quiet in front of goal when the model had pencilled them in for at least one, and that's what made the difference between our call and the actual scoreline.
Before kickoff, we'd flagged Livingston's underlying form advantage, but the match tightened up in ways the model hadn't quite expected. Sometimes that's just how football goes—the data pointed toward an open game, but Livingston proved sharper in the second half and Queen's Park couldn't capitalize on their chances.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Livingston xG 0.7 | Queen's Park xG 0.5
Projected: 33% / 48% / 19%
H2H: 4W-3D-1L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-3D-1L for Livingston in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-2 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.