📊 Recent Form
Lommel United
Charleroi
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Lommel United edge it at 44% against 25% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Lommel United at 44% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 29% — a gap in our favour of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United Win Value | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 44% | +15% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.38 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
| Charleroi Win | 11/10 2.15 | 43% | 31% | -12% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Lommel United mid-table (P12) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for Lommel United, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Lommel home W in last 2 of 2 home games; Charleroi away D-L-L in last 3 away
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Lommel mid-table P12 low motivation, Charleroi P5 with normal motivation — slight edge to Charleroi ambition but away form negates it
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — recent last scores show high-scoring tendencies for both sides individually, with Lommel conceding 4+ once and Charleroi involved in 3-1 and 2-3 results recently
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.