Lyon edged out Crystal Palace 3-2 in a competitive Europa League knockout tie, recovering from a sluggish start to secure a narrow victory. Tolisso opened the scoring early for the home side at the 8-minute mark, and Nuamah doubled Lyon's lead before the interval with a well-taken finish from Nakamura's assist. Palace rallied impressively after the restart—Pino pulled one back just after the hour through Wharton's pass—but Šulc restored Lyon's two-goal cushion at 76, again assisted by Nakamura. Palace refused to lie down, with Kamada scoring late on, but it came too late to force an unlikely equalizer.

Our model had leaned toward Lyon at 51% probability, predicting a 2-0 shutout. We got the result direction right—Lyon did win—but badly underestimated both the drama and Palace's offensive threat. Pre-match, the data flagged Lyon's solid home form and Palace's injury-hit squad, which suggested a controlled Lyon display. What actually unfolded was messier: Palace carved out real chances and made a genuine fist of it, with two goals that our model had underweighted significantly. Šulc's late insurance goal proved crucial in the end; without it, this would've been a very different conversation. The match played out as considerably more open than we'd anticipated, a reminder that even when you call the winner right, knockout football rarely unfolds in such tidy fashion.