CSKA Sofia delivered a comprehensive dismantling of Maccabi Tel Aviv in this Europa League knockout tie, running out 3-0 winners to overturn what looked like a competitive matchup on paper. Ebong opened the floodgates early with a ninth-minute finish from Godoy's assist, then Godoy himself doubled the lead just after the half-hour mark with help from Pittas. The damage was done well before Zwarts wrapped things up in the 90th minute after a Pastor assist, leaving Maccabi with nothing to show from a night that went drastically wrong.

Our model leaned toward a Maccabi win before kickoff at 51%, with CSKA Sofia given just 24% — a gap that reflected the designated home side's recent domestic form and the knockout stakes at play. That forecast came nowhere near what actually unfolded. We'd projected a 2-1 scoreline, which admittedly sits on a thin line between plausible and lucky, but CSKA's 3-0 rout rewrote the script entirely. The model had weighted Maccabi's home advantage and offensive threat heavily, while underestimating how effectively Sofia would operate on the road and how comprehensively they'd control the tie once they went ahead.

This one stings on accuracy, but it's a useful reminder that knockout football moves fast and form sheets don't guarantee outcomes. CSKA came with a clear game plan and executed it ruthlessly from the opening minutes, while Maccabi never found their rhythm. Our model missed the mark here, and that's worth noting plainly.