Real Sociedad came to Málaga and simply overwhelmed the home side in a one-sided affair that finished 5-2. It was a chastening afternoon for Málaga, who started brightly enough — Kubo put Sociedad ahead early with a finish from Fort's assist at the third minute — but were never really in it after that. Óskarsson doubled the lead on 26 minutes, and by the time Nino pulled one back for Málaga just after the hour, Sociedad had already put the game to bed. Oyarzabal made it three on 59 minutes, Martínez Andrés briefly flickered hope with a second for Málaga on 66, but Oyarzabal struck again almost immediately and Guedes added a fifth on 73 to seal a comprehensive victory.

Our model predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Real Sociedad winning at 35% probability — a lean rather than a confident call, and one that got the result direction spot on but completely miscalculated the scale. We'd flagged Málaga's rest advantage and their desperation fighting relegation as factors that might keep the game tight, while Sociedad's 40% recent win rate and solid goal average suggested they'd win but not run away with it. The match had other ideas. Sociedad's attacking threat proved far more potent than the pre-match numbers indicated, and Málaga simply didn't have the firepower to mount a response once they fell behind. It's a useful reminder that form lines and rest days don't always translate to the pitch — sometimes one team just has too much quality on the day, and that's exactly what happened here.