Villarreal came away from the Estadio de la Rosaleda with a commanding 3-1 victory, putting on a second-half show that belied the tight, tense nature of this relegation-zone clash. Malaga got off to a bright start and broke the deadlock early through Dotor in the 12th minute, assisted by Cruz, but Villarreal responded before the interval. Moleiro levelled things up in the 40th minute—set up by Akhomach Chakkour—and the visitors went in ahead just before half-time when Gueye made it 2-1 in the 45th minute, finishing from Pérez's assist. Gueye added a second from the penalty spot in the 86th to seal it.

Our model came into this one leaning narrowly toward a Villarreal win at 35% probability, though it was close across all three outcomes. The pre-match prediction landed on 0-1, a cautious scoreline that reflected the stakes—both sides sitting in the relegation zone with nowhere to hide. The actual result did confirm the winner we'd identified, so the directional call held up, but the match unfolded with considerably more goal activity than expected. Where we'd flagged historically low-scoring meetings between these two and factored in the defensive caution you'd expect from teams fighting for their lives, Villarreal instead came out swinging in the second half and took the game away from Malaga decisively.

It's a reminder that even when you get the result right, football doesn't always play out the way the data suggests it should. Malaga had the early energy but lacked the cutting edge to press home their advantage, while Villarreal—despite their recent away struggles—showed enough quality to turn it around once they got their noses in front.