Bournemouth delivered a commanding performance to dismantle Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford, sweeping aside our pre-match prediction entirely. The visitors struck twice before half-time through goals from Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha in the 38th minute, assisted by Justin Kluivert, and Marcus Tavernier six minutes later from Adrien Truffert's pass. Francisco Evanilson added a third in the 71st minute, finishing off a move set up by Lewis Cook, to seal a comprehensive away victory that sent Manchester United to a heavy defeat.

Our model had projected a 2-1 scoreline favouring United, giving Bournemouth just a 24% chance of winning outright. That lean reflected their injury concerns and fatigue issues heading into the fixture, despite the motivation that comes with a relegation battle. What unfolded on the pitch told a different story entirely. Bournemouth's defence and transition play proved far sharper than anticipated, while Manchester United couldn't muster the attacking threat the model had expected at home. The away side's clinical finishing—three chances, three goals—and composed defensive shape simply overwhelmed a side that couldn't find a way through.

This was a clear miss for our model. The pre-match weighting underestimated Bournemouth's capacity to impose themselves in this fixture and overestimated the hosts' ability to break them down or recover from a difficult start. It's a useful reminder that while form and underlying metrics point toward likely outcomes, individual matches don't always cooperate with the numbers—and Bournemouth's display here was a proper performance that deservedly flipped the script.