📊 Recent Form
Mantova
Cremonese
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Mantova at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Mantova at 52% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 41% — a gap in our favour of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova Win Value | 5/4 2.29 | 41% | 52% | +11% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 28% | 23% | -5% |
| Cremonese Win | 2/1 3.05 | 31% | 25% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Mantova in title race (P2)
- 🆘 Cremonese in relegation danger (P18/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mantova xG 1.86 | Cremonese xG 0.93
Projected: 55% / 22% / 23%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
