Maritimo and Academico Viseu served up a lively 2-2 draw in what turned out to be a much more open affair than our pre-match model had anticipated. The visitors struck first through Andre Clovis in the 25th minute, with A. Correia providing the assist, and doubled their lead just before half-time when S. Messeguem made it 2-0 at 45+1'. Maritimo pulled one back through P. Henrique in the 70th, then levelled from the spot when A. Butzke converted a penalty in the 87th to secure a share of the spoils.

Our model had backed a 1-0 scoreline, giving a draw just a 31% chance before kickoff — well short of what unfolded. The pre-match data favoured a tight, low-scoring contest: the underlying numbers had Maritimo with an expected goals edge (1.56 to 1.27), and the head-to-head record suggested stalemate wasn't unusual between these sides. That forecast leaned towards a Maritimo win, but it clearly missed the target here. Academico Viseu got ahead early and forced the home side to chase, which opened the game up considerably; a pair of second-half Maritimo goals meant nobody could nick it.

It's a reminder that even when the model's logic is sound — possession patterns, defensive solidity — a single early goal or tactical shift can flip a match on its head. Both sides had chances, both scored, and a draw was probably fair in the end. Our model didn't see it coming, but that's football.