Benfica swept past Maritimo with a commanding 3-0 victory, cementing their status as the stronger side on the day. Leandro Barreiro opened the scoring early, converting in the 7th minute to set the tone. He doubled his tally in the 71st minute with an assist from Vangelis Pavlidis, and Gianluca Prestianni sealed it late on at the 82nd mark. It was a clinical display from the visitors, who controlled the match and converted their chances with efficiency.

Our pre-match model leaned toward a Benfica win at 56% probability, predicting a 1-2 scoreline. The result direction was spot on—we called the winner correctly—but we underestimated Benfica's attacking dominance. The model had flagged Benfica's excellent form and a strong historical record against Maritimo, who came into the game with mixed recent form and a limited attacking threat at home. Those fundamentals largely held up: Benfica delivered the superior performance, and Maritimo never really threatened. Where we came up short was on the scoreline itself. We expected a tighter contest with Maritimo getting a goal, but instead they were kept scoreless across the ninety minutes. It's a reminder that even when the underlying factors point the right way, the exact execution can surprise you.