📊 Recent Form
Maritimo
FC Porto
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts FC Porto at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have FC Porto at 58% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 71% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Maritimo came out swinging but ultimately couldn't hold on, as FC Porto came from behind to win 2-1 in a match that didn't quite follow the script our model had sketched out beforehand. Gábor Szalai got the home side ahead early on with a goal in the 16th minute, assisted by Maxime Dominguez, and for a stretch it looked like Porto might be in for a tougher evening than expected. Victor Froholdt levelled things up before half-time in the 42nd minute, though, and when Oskar Pietuszewski added a second in the 84th with an assist from Jakub Kiwior, the visitors had turned it around.
Before kickoff, our model leaned toward a Porto win at 58% confidence, with a clean sheet and low-scoring finish flagged as the likeliest scenario—we predicted a 0-2 scoreline. We got the result direction right, but the match was scrappier than we'd envisioned. Maritimo actually found the net early, which spoke to a bit more attacking threat than the xG figures (0.7 for Maritimo versus 2.65 for Porto) had suggested they might muster. Porto did enough to take it in the end, though, and secured three points despite a bumpier road than expected. The win was never in serious doubt once Pietuszewski made it 2-1, even if the path there wasn't quite as economical as the model had anticipated.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo Win Value | 8/1 9.00 | 10% | 21% | +11% |
| Draw | 4/1 4.98 | 19% | 21% | +2% |
| FC Porto Win | 1/3 1.32 | 71% | 58% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Maritimo mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 🏆 FC Porto in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Maritimo xG 0.7 | FC Porto xG 2.65
Projected: 3% / 19% / 78%
H2H: 1W-2D-5L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
1W-2D-5L for Maritimo in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.