Olympiakos Piraeus edged past Marseille 1-0 in a low-scoring Europa League knockout tie, with Santiago Hezze's 42nd-minute strike—set up by Chiquinho—proving the difference. It was a tightly contested affair befitting the competition's elimination stakes, and a result that landed squarely in line with pre-match expectations: our model had called a 0-1 scoreline and nailed both the exact score and the winner.

Going into kickoff, the model gave Olympiakos a 37% chance of victory—a lean rather than a lock, reflecting how tight the tie shaped up on paper. Marseille came in at 36%, so it was genuinely close, yet the underlying form pointed toward the Greeks. Olympiakos had been in excellent shape recently and carried a strong away record into the match, while Marseille had been struggling—a gap that proved meaningful when it mattered. The H2H history and low-scoring character of the fixture all pointed toward a cagey, defensive-minded game, and that's exactly what unfolded: clean sheet, single goal, under 2.5 total shots on target. The model's lean on Olympiakos held up.

It's a solid result for our prediction record—we called both the outcome and the scoreline in a knockout tie where margins are razor-thin and nothing's guaranteed. The pre-match picture held its shape across ninety minutes, and Olympiakos's defensive discipline and superior recent form did the talking when it counted.