📊 Recent Form
Mexico
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. a draw edge it at 40% against 40% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have a draw at 40% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 17% — a gap in our favour of 23 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 0 goals. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico Win | 1/4 1.25 | 74% | 36% | -38% |
| Draw Value | 9/2 5.55 | 17% | 40% | +23% |
| Serbia Win Value | 10/1 11.00 | 9% | 24% | +15% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Mexico (74% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mexico averaging just 0.75 goals scored per game in recent outings with several draws and losses; Serbia has limited tracked form data
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly — neither side has competitive pressure, reducing motivation for both attacks
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available between Mexico and Serbia in recent history.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-0 scoreline totals 0 goals, keeping it under 2.5.