Minnesota United and Orlando City served up a wild three-three draw in a match that had everything except the scoreline our model predicted. Orlando struck early through Dike in the 28th minute, then doubled their lead when Griezmann finished after Ellis's assist on 64 minutes. Minnesota looked up against it, but they turned it around in stunning fashion between the 72nd and 76th minute—Caldeira got one back just after the hour with Yeboah credited for the assist, then Markanich made it 2-2 four minutes later courtesy of Pereyra's pass. Yeboah himself grabbed a third for the home side moments after, putting Minnesota 3-2 up and seemingly in control. Orlando had other ideas, though. Spicer popped up in the 93rd minute to level it, setting up by Griezmann, and that's how it finished.

Our model had backed a 2-1 Minnesota win with a draw assigned just 27 percent probability, so this result sat well outside our primary lean. What went wrong? We'd flagged Minnesota's relegation-zone pressure as a significant home advantage and expected a tight, low-scoring affair. The match did stay competitive—both sides genuinely looked like scoring throughout—but the goals came thick and fast once things got going, especially in that frantic 72-76 minute spell. Orlando's away form and inconsistency didn't stop them from staying in it, and the finish proved they had plenty of fight left. It's a reminder that even when the narrative around a team points one way, individual matches don't always cooperate with the numbers.