📊 Recent Form
Mirassol
Vitoria
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Mirassol at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 48/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Mirassol and Vitoria served up a dramatic finish in what turned out to be a far more open contest than our pre-match model anticipated. Vitoria came out swinging, with Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira bagging a brace inside the opening quarter-hour — first in the 3rd minute courtesy of a Lucas Arcanjo assist, then again in the 12th after Erick set him up. It looked like the visitors were going to run away with it, but Mirassol had other ideas. Bruno Santos de Oliveira pulled one back in the 68th minute to give the home side a lifeline, and they completed the comeback with Edson Carioca's 90th-minute leveller, assisted by Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat.
Our model tipped a 1-0 Mirassol win, assigning a 28% chance to the draw that actually materialised. The logic beforehand looked sound: Mirassol's relegation peril should've sharpened them at home, Vitoria's indifferent away form pointed to a low-scoring scrap, and the head-to-head pattern suggested tight, defensive encounters. What we didn't account for was Vitoria's explosive early dominance and Mirassol's resilience to fight back from two down. The match unfolded at a faster tempo and with more goalmouth action than the underlying metrics suggested, leaving our call well wide of the mark on both result direction and exact scoreline.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol Win | 8/11 1.73 | 54% | 54% | ±0% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.64 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
| Vitoria Win | 7/2 4.73 | 20% | 18% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Mirassol in relegation danger (P16, only 0 pt cushion)
- 😴 Vitoria mid-table (P12) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mirassol struggling overall but boosted by home necessity; Vitoria winless in last 4 away games
H2H: Vitoria have won 3 of last 6 but avg only 1.7 goals/game — tight, low-scoring pattern
Stakes: Mirassol in relegation danger with zero-point cushion; Vitoria in comfortable mid-table with little to play for
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Vitoria have slight dominance (3W-2D-1L) but all meetings have been tight and low-scoring — three of the last five produced one goal or fewer total, confirming this as a defensively cautious fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.