📊 Recent Form
Mjallby AIF
Red Bull Salzburg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Red Bull Salzburg edge it at 44% against 24% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Red Bull Salzburg at 44% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 54% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Red Bull Salzburg edged past Mjallby AIF with a 1-0 victory in a tight Europa League knockout tie. The winning goal came in the 90+1st minute—an own goal from T. Pettersson—in what proved a dramatic finish to a closely contested match.
Our model had predicted a 2-0 scoreline with a 44% probability lean toward Salzburg, so we got the result direction right but missed on the exact margin. The forecast weighted Salzburg as favorites based on their strong recent form against Mjallby's inconsistency, and that underlying shape held up: the Austrian side did come away with the win in a knockout setting where both teams were fully invested. What we didn't account for was how tight the match would play out—a single goal in added time rather than a comfortable two-goal buffer. Salzburg's clean sheet aligned with what we'd flagged as a likely outcome, but conceding zero goals while also scoring just once made for a narrower path to victory than the model had favored.
In a knockout tie, one goal separates progression from elimination, and Salzburg will take it however it comes. Pettersson's own goal in the dying moments was a cruel way for Mjallby to exit, but European football at this level often turns on fine margins and individual moments. Salzburg advance, and while we didn't nail the scoreline, the favorite got the job done when it mattered most.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF Win Value | 10/3 4.22 | 22% | 32% | +10% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 24% | ±0% |
| Red Bull Salzburg Win | 8/11 1.71 | 54% | 44% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mjallby AIF inconsistent (Win% 22%, recent losses 0-2, 0-1, 1-2); Salzburg strong (Win% 56%, recent wins 3-0, 1-0, 1-0)
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful head-to-head history between these clubs
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes, both teams fully motivated, no dead-rubber discounts applied
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant head-to-head history between Mjallby AIF and Red Bull Salzburg to draw meaningful trends from.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.