ML Vitebsk edged Borac Banja Luka 1-0 in a Conference League knockout tie that looked settled early before descending into absolute chaos. Cleonise put Vitebsk ahead in the 45th minute with an assist from Volkov, giving the home side control of the aggregate going into extra time. But Borac clawed level through Deket in the 103rd minute, and from there the match spiraled into a penalty shootout within the match itself. Kontsevoy restored Vitebsk's lead in the 120th minute, only for Volkov and Kontsevoy to both convert spot kicks in quick succession, alongside Borac's Vranjes and Hiros doing the same. The chaos continued with Gnaka, Gomanov, Herrera, and another Deket penalty all flying in before the final whistle.

Our model tipped a 1-0 Vitebsk win with 51% backing for the home side — a lean rather than a conviction, given the aggregate situation made this a genuinely tight proposition. Getting both the result and the exact scoreline right at a 51% probability is a solid call, though we have to be straight about it: with three other outcomes lumped at 29% (draw) and 20% (Borac), this wasn't a confident forecast. The early pattern — low-scoring, defensive, aggregate-sensitive — aligned with what we'd flagged pre-match. Borac's away form and Vitebsk's need to chase a goal set the tone nicely.

What happened after the 90 minutes, though, belonged to the lottery. The model had no prediction for how extra time and penalties would play out, only that a regulation 1-0 finish was the most likely endpoint. In that respect, getting the final result right matters less than sticking to what we actually said we expected — a narrow Vitebsk home win in open play — and the first 90 minutes handed us exactly that.