📊 Recent Form
Moreirense
Maritimo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Maritimo edge it at 37% against 30% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Maritimo at 37% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 31% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Moreirense turned in a dominant display to thrash Maritimo 3-1 and deliver a result that looked nowhere near the cards before kickoff. Manuel Mendonça fired them ahead in the 17th minute, assisted by Tiago Andrade, and they doubled their lead just eleven minutes later when Leonardo Vonić finished off a move set up by Kiko Bondoso. Maritimo pulled one back through Romain Correia in the 79th, but any hope of a comeback evaporated when Alexandre Parsemain converted a penalty in the 86th to seal the win.
Our model had backed a 1-2 away victory with Maritimo favoured at 37% to win, while Moreirense sat at just 33%. The reality couldn't have swung further the other way. Before the match, the forecast leaned on Moreirense's recent struggles—a run of heavy defeats and a relegation-zone position—against Maritimo's steadier form and the mental advantage of mid-table security. What actually happened was Moreirense produced their best performance in weeks and showed exactly the kind of desperation and intensity their league position demanded, while Maritimo offered little resistance for long stretches.
The early goals set the tone decisively, and though Maritimo briefly threatened a comeback with their goal in the second half, Moreirense never looked like letting it slip. It's a sharp reminder that form and motivation don't always play out as neatly as the models expect—sometimes a team fights harder when it matters most, and sometimes the favourites simply have an off day. We got this one badly wrong.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense Win | 11/8 2.42 | 39% | 33% | -6% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.15 | 30% | 30% | ±0% |
| Maritimo Win Value | 2/1 2.97 | 31% | 37% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Moreirense in relegation danger (P14, only 1 pt cushion)
- 😴 Maritimo mid-table (P10) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Moreirense struggling badly — 0-4, 1-2, 0-4 in recent outings, avg 0.75 scored / 2.06 conceded. Maritimo steadier — 2-1, 1-0 wins recently, avg 0.98 scored / 1.54 conceded.
H2H: Balanced historically (Moreirense 4W, Maritimo 3W, 1D in last 8), avg 2.1 goals/game — goals are typically present in these meetings.
Stakes: Moreirense in relegation danger adds desperation but their squad hasn't converted that into results; Maritimo mid-table with lower urgency but superior rest and form.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings averaged 2.1 goals per game with Moreirense holding a narrow head-to-head edge (4W vs 3W), but recent results show Maritimo won the last meeting 1-0 in March 2022. Both teams have historically found the net in these fixtures, reinforcing the BTTS lean.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.