Morocco vs Haiti
📝 Match Recap
Morocco swept past Haiti with a commanding 4-2 victory in what turned out to be a more open contest than our pre-match model had anticipated. An own goal from Bono inside the opening ten minutes set the tone early, before Hakimi doubled the lead on 39 minutes. Haiti pulled one back through Isidor just before the break, but Morocco reasserted control decisively. Saibari restored the two-goal buffer in first-half stoppage time with an assist from Hakimi, then Rahimi added the fourth on 78 minutes off a pass from Riad. Yassine rounded things off late on with a finish created by Rahimi.
Our prediction of a 3-0 scoreline with Morocco winning at 82% gave us the result direction spot on, but we underestimated Haiti's capacity to trouble the Moroccan defence. The model had weighted a clean sheet heavily, when in reality Haiti's dogged approach and moments of quality—particularly Isidor's finish and the build-up play that set it up—showed enough to register twice. That said, the pre-match expectation of Morocco's dominance and their ability to score multiple goals proved accurate; they simply weren't quite as watertight at the back as expected.
The shape of the match held broadly to what we'd flagged beforehand. Morocco's attacking intent was unmistakable from the start, and Haiti's challenge was always going to lean on opportunism rather than sustained control. Missing the exact scoreline is a fair miss—this wasn't a curveball, just a reminder that World Cup football's unpredictability means even strong leans can play out with different margins and defensive frailties than the numbers suggest.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco Win | 1/6 1.17 | 81% | 82% | +1% |
| Draw | 6/1 7.50 | 13% | 14% | +1% |
| Haiti Win | 16/1 17.00 | 6% | 4% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Morocco WDDWWWD with back-to-back heavy wins (5-0, 4-0); Haiti LLLWDLWWLW with poor away form (LLW)
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: World Cup group stage — Morocco highly motivated to assert dominance and advance; Haiti fighting to avoid elimination with low confidence
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant recent head-to-head history between these sides, making model and form the primary drivers.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
📊 Group C Standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
Live Group C table, built from completed results · full group page →