Morocco vs Madagascar
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco Win Value | 1/12 1.09 | 86% | 91% | +5% |
| Draw | 8/1 9.50 | 10% | 6% | -4% |
| Madagascar Win | 20/1 22.00 | 4% | 3% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Morocco in exceptional form (WDWWWDWWWW), averaging 2.01 goals scored and just 0.23 conceded; Madagascar in poor form (WLLDLWLLLD) with weak away record (LLWLL)
H2H: Limited data but ELO gap and form disparity strongly favour Morocco
Stakes: International friendly, but Morocco likely motivated ahead of 2026 World Cup preparations; Madagascar have little to play for
Betting: BTTS unlikely — Morocco's defensive record is outstanding (0.23 conceded avg) and Madagascar struggle to create chances on the road. Over 2.5 highly likely given Morocco's attacking output and Madagascar's defensive frailty.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — but ELO gap of 322 points and contrasting recent form heavily favour a high-scoring Morocco win with a clean sheet.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Madagascar are unlikely to score given Morocco's exceptional defensive record of just 0.23 goals conceded per game at home, their disciplined backline, and Madagascar's poor away form and low attacking output of 0.75 goals per game. Morocco are expected to keep a comfortable clean sheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
With Morocco averaging 2.01 goals scored per game and projecting an xG of 4.5 against a Madagascar side conceding 1.42 per game on the road, the total is strongly expected to exceed 2.5 goals. The large ELO gap and Morocco's recent scorelines of 3-0, 2-0, and 3-0 further support a high-scoring one-sided contest.