📊 Recent Form
Morton
Partick
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Partick edge it at 43% against 28% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Partick at 43% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 59% — a gap against us of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 56/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Partick Thistle made their trip to Cappielow count, securing a 1-0 win over Morton with a goal from Letsosa in the 82nd minute. It was a tight affair that stayed goalless until late in the game, then swung decisively the visitors' way when it mattered most. Morton pushed hard but couldn't find a way through, and Partick held firm to claim all three points.
Our model had marked this one down as 0-1 to Partick, assigning it a 43% probability before kickoff — a lean rather than a confident call, given the tightness of the fixture. The pre-match picture favoured Partick's recent unbeaten run and attacking threat against Morton's struggles in front of goal, but both sides were early in the table with roughly equal footing. The match unfolded in line with that expectation: a low-scoring contest where one side edged it late. The clean sheet and single goal fit the profile we'd sketched, and Letsosa's finish proved to be the only moment of quality either defence gave up.
It's a solid hit for the model — both the exact scoreline and the result direction came through. These tight, low-scoring games are notoriously hard to pin down, so nailing the 0-1 rather than ending up on a 1-1 or 0-0 is exactly the kind of call that shows real value over a season's worth of fixtures.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton Win Value | 4/1 5.20 | 18% | 29% | +11% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 3.90 | 23% | 28% | +5% |
| Partick Win | 4/7 1.56 | 59% | 43% | -16% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Morton winless and scoreless in 4 of last 5; Partick unbeaten in last 6 with strong attack
H2H: Partick lead recent meetings 3W-4D-1L; last meeting was Partick win 1-2 at Morton
Stakes: Both sides early in the table with normal motivation — no extreme pressure differentials
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Partick have won 3 of the last 8 meetings including the most recent fixture (1-2 at Morton in March 2026). Draws are common (4 of 8) but Partick have the edge in wins and recent momentum.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.