📊 Recent Form
Motherwell
Aberdeen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Motherwell at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Motherwell at 54% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 43% — a gap in our favour of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 59/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell Win Value | 6/5 2.20 | 43% | 54% | +11% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 27% | 24% | -3% |
| Aberdeen Win | 2/1 3.05 | 30% | 22% | -8% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Motherwell chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Motherwell averaging 1.33 goals scored but only 0.7 conceded at home; Aberdeen's away record shows 2 losses in last 5 away games
H2H: Motherwell 4W-1D-3L in last 8; 2-0 scoreline appeared twice recently; avg 2.4 goals/game
Stakes: Motherwell pushing for top-2 provides clear motivation boost; Aberdeen have no pressing incentive
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Motherwell hold a slight edge in recent H2H (4 wins vs 3 for Aberdeen), with the 2-0 scoreline appearing twice in the last five meetings. Aberdeen have not shown consistent away dominance in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.