Nantes vs Toulouse
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes Win | 6/4 2.56 | 37% | 14% | -23% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 36% | +9% |
| Toulouse Win Value | 13/8 2.60 | 36% | 50% | +14% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 💀 Nantes already relegated (P17) — nothing to play for
- 😴 Toulouse mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Nantes averaging under 1 goal scored per game at home, Toulouse averaging 1.77 scored overall with 2.29 conceded — both sides leaky but Toulouse more potent. H2H: Draw-prone series (4 draws in 8), avg 2.5 goals/game, recent meetings tight. Stakes: Nantes relegated with nothing to fight for, Toulouse mid-table dead rubber — slight lean to draw but Toulouse quality tips it. Betting: Bookmaker odds are split 39/39 but Poisson gives Toulouse 50% win probability — model edges toward Toulouse.
⚔️ Head to Head
Four draws in the last eight meetings signal a draw-prone rivalry, but Nantes' motivation collapse as a relegated side breaks the pattern in Toulouse's favour. Recent H2H averages 2.5 goals per game, supporting a modest multi-goal outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.