📊 Recent Form
Napoli
Bodo/Glimt
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Napoli at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Napoli at 46% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 60% — a gap against us of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Napoli came from behind to edge Bodo/Glimt 4-3 in a chaotic Champions League encounter that swung wildly across both halves. Matteo Politano got the designated home side off to a dream start after just a minute, slotting home from Spinazzola's assist, but Bodo/Glimt bit straight back through Jens Petter Hauge's finish off Sondre Fet's cross in the 27th. McTominay doubled Napoli's tally before the break with a well-taken header from De Bruyne's delivery, but the Norwegian visitors kept themselves firmly in it when Andreas Helmersen finished from another Fet assist on the hour. McTominay struck again in the 75th to put Napoli two clear, only for an own goal by Odin Luras Bjortuft in the 88th to set up a frantic finale. Bodo/Glimt grabbed one more through Sondre Fet deep into stoppage time, but it wasn't enough to force a draw.
Our model's pre-match read assigned Napoli a 46% win probability, making the result the most likely outcome but far from a banker. The underlying expectation was a tighter, lower-scoring affair — we called 2-1 — based on expected goals that actually favoured Bodo/Glimt's attacking threat. What actually happened was looser and higher-scoring than that lean suggested. Both sides found space in the final third, Napoli converted their chances efficiently enough to hold on, and the Norwegian side's ability to stay competitive right until the whistle showed they had the tools to trouble the Italian side across the 90 minutes. It didn't go to script, but the result itself fell squarely within the plausible range we'd framed before kickoff.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 3/5 1.60 | 60% | 46% | -14% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.42 | 22% | 23% | +1% |
| Bodo/Glimt Win Value | 4/1 5.03 | 18% | 31% | +13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Champions League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Napoli xG 1.59 | Bodo/Glimt xG 2.15
Projected: 44% / 22% / 34%
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.