📊 Recent Form
Napoli
Bologna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Napoli at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Napoli at 47% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 52% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 47/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Napoli ground out a 1-0 win over Bologna in a match that ended up far tighter than the pre-kickoff mood suggested. Stanislav Lobotka settled it in the 66th minute with an assist from Cristiano Favasuli, enough to secure three points in what turned into a cagey affair on the day.
Our model tipped a 2-1 scoreline before kickoff, giving Napoli a 47% chance of victory — the lean direction proved right, but the execution didn't match expectations. The flags were raised on paper: Napoli averaging 1.6 expected goals at home despite mixed recent form, Bologna in deep trouble at the bottom of the table and hungry for points. That desperation should've made for an open contest and some goals. Instead, it played out as a single-goal game, which speaks to a more controlled Napoli performance and Bologna's inability to trouble them despite the stakes involved.
Missing the exact scoreline is the downside here — we went one goal too heavy on both sides. But the result direction held, and that's the call that matters most. It's a decent lean from the model even if it didn't nail the fine detail.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 5/6 1.83 | 52% | 47% | -5% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| Bologna Win | 7/2 4.44 | 21% | 25% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Napoli mid-table (P12) — low motivation
- 🆘 Bologna in relegation danger (P16, only 0 pt cushion)
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for Napoli, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Napoli inconsistent (LLLWWDWWL) but averaging 1.6 xG at home; Bologna on a dreadful run (DLLLLWWDL) scoring only 0.71 per game away
H2H: Last 8 meetings heavily contested — 2 Napoli wins, 3 draws, 3 Bologna wins; recent clashes at this ground ended 2-3 and 2-0 (both high-scoring)
Stakes: Napoli mid-table with low motivation; Bologna in relegation danger (P16, zero-point cushion) — expect an aggressive, open Bologna side fighting for points
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly split with neutral dominance, but recent encounters have been high-scoring and volatile — the last Napoli home game ended 2-3 and the one before 2-0, suggesting goals flow freely when these sides meet at the Maradona.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
