Nashville SC dismantled Inter Miami 4-1 in a dominant display that bore little resemblance to what our model had anticipated heading into kickoff. The hosts seized control early when Najar opened the scoring in the 17th minute with an assist from Saad, but Miami levelled through a Messi penalty just six minutes later. The visitors briefly looked capable of mounting a challenge, and Segovia's goal at the stroke of halftime—set up by Messi—actually put Inter Miami ahead going into the break. That proved the high-water mark for Miami's evening. Nashville came out with a completely different intensity after the restart, and Mukhtar equalised in the 49th minute through Saad's assist before adding a second of his own in the 63rd, this time from Schwake's cross. Surridge's goal in the 56th minute, assisted by Espinoza, had already sealed the rout by then. It was a chastening reversal for the visitors, who came into this fixture with a strong recent away record.

Our model assigned Nashville just a 41% chance of victory, leaning instead towards an Inter Miami win at 37%, with a 1-2 scoreline at the centre of that thinking. The prediction clearly underestimated Nashville's home threat and overestimated Miami's ability to impose themselves despite being hit by injuries. Before kickoff, the model had weighted Miami's superior head-to-head record and recent away form fairly heavily, plus concerns about potential fatigue for both sides following the Leagues Cup. Nashville's excellent home form registered, but not strongly enough to shift the dial. The match unfolded in almost the opposite shape—Nashville controlled play, turned chances into goals with ruthless efficiency, and Miami never recovered from the second-half onslaught. It's a fair lesson in why 41% outcomes happen more often than you'd think, and why probabilities remain exactly that: leans, not certainties.