📊 Recent Form
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Nashville SC at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Nashville SC at 55% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 49% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC Win Value | 10/11 1.91 | 49% | 55% | +6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.88 | 24% | 24% | ±0% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 21% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Nashville SC xG 2.58 | Philadelphia Union xG 1.04
Projected: 60% / 23% / 17%
H2H: 3W-2D-3L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
3W-2D-3L for Nashville SC in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.