📊 Recent Form
Algeria
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Netherlands edge it at 39% against 37% for the draw and 24% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Netherlands at 39% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 69% — a gap against us of 30 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands Win | 4/11 1.36 | 69% | 39% | -30% |
| Draw Value | 4/1 4.85 | 20% | 37% | +17% |
| Algeria Win Value | 8/1 8.75 | 11% | 24% | +13% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Netherlands (69% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Netherlands have 50% win rate with limited recent data; Algeria in excellent form (LWWWWDWWDW) but away from familiar territory. H2H: Limited data available. Stakes: International friendly — moderate motivation for both sides, though Netherlands will want to impress ahead of the 2026 World Cup cycle. Betting: Bookmakers strongly back Netherlands (73% home win); low xG totals (0.79 vs 0.75) suggest under 2.5 goals is likely; Algeria's defensive record (0.71 conceded avg) keeps this tight but Netherlands' quality edge should deliver the clean sheet.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to identify a strong trend between these two sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.