📊 Recent Form
New England Revolution
Chicago Fire
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. New England Revolution edge it at 41% against 31% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
New England Revolution took the points with a 1-0 win over Chicago Fire, scoring through Matt Polster in the 26th minute after a setup from Carles Gil. It was a tight affair that saw the home side edge a low-scoring contest, with the Fire unable to find a leveller despite their efforts. One goal proved enough to settle it.
Our model had leaned toward a 2-1 New England win before kickoff, handing the Revolution a 41% chance of victory. That lean on the result direction was correct—the home team did indeed come away with three points—but the match played out tighter than expected. The forecast had weighted a higher-scoring finish based on New England's recent form, Chicago's defensive issues, and the fixture's history of producing goals. Instead, both sides managed to keep the scoreboard relatively quiet. The Fire's struggles this season made them vulnerable, and the Revolution's solidity showed through, even if they didn't quite replicate the attacking output the model had anticipated.
It's the kind of fixture where a single moment—in this case Polster's clinical finish—decides the tie. Our model nailed the winner but got the margin and total goals wrong. That's football: form and metrics give you a steer, but execution on the night is what counts.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win | 11/8 2.38 | 40% | 41% | +1% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.79 | 25% | 31% | +6% |
| Chicago Fire Win | 13/8 2.64 | 35% | 28% | -7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: New England in solid form (WLLWWWLWDW, 60% win rate, avg 1.96 scored); Chicago struggling (30% win rate, LWWWLLDDDL)
H2H: Draw-prone fixture (4 draws in 8), averaging 3.6 goals/game — high-scoring history pulls total upward
Stakes: Both teams appear mid-table with no extreme motivation differential, slight home-advantage boost for Revolution
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Draw-prone over last 8 meetings (4 draws, 2 wins each), but averaging 3.6 goals per game suggesting neither side dominates defensively — recent Sep 2026 H2H saw New England win 2-1 away, directly supporting a narrow scoreline in their favour at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.