📊 Recent Form
New England Revolution
Seattle Sounders
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts New England Revolution at 48%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Seattle Sounders swept past New England Revolution with a commanding 3-0 win that left little doubt about which side wanted it more. Dotson got things rolling early with a 15th-minute opener, and the Sounders never looked back. Joveljić added the second in the 74th minute, assisted by Arriola, before Arriola himself sealed it in the 81st with Ferreira picking out the pass. By that point the game was already decided.
Our model leaned towards New England before kickoff, projecting a 2-1 scoreline with the Revolution favoured at 48% to win. That lean was built on expected goals figures that looked promising for the hosts, but Seattle's 25% win probability was always a plausible outcome in a fairly tight matchup. What actually happened — a dominant Sounders display — wasn't the most likely path the model saw, but it wasn't the long shot either. The Sounders simply came out sharper, took their chances, and controlled the match in a way the pre-match metrics didn't quite anticipate. New England couldn't get it going going forward, and Seattle's defence held firm. Sometimes the underdog leans harder than expected.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win | 5/6 1.86 | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 27% | +3% |
| Seattle Sounders Win | 11/4 3.69 | 26% | 25% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 Seattle Sounders in European race (P7)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: New England Revolution xG 1.8 | Seattle Sounders xG 1.36
Projected: 47% / 29% / 24%
H2H: 2W-3D-2L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-3D-2L for New England Revolution in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.