Nice came from behind to beat Strasbourg 2-1 in a match that didn't unfold quite as our model had imagined. Strasbourg struck first through Essugo in the 41st minute, assisted by Harder, putting the visitors in control at the break. But Nice levelled almost immediately after the restart when Diop turned the ball into his own net in the 45th minute, and then sealed the win through Clauss in the 81st, set up by Diop on the other end this time.

Our pre-match prediction of a 1-2 scoreline and a Strasbourg win didn't come off — the model assigned Nice just a 39% chance of victory, so this wasn't the most likely scenario we'd flagged. What shifted things was Nice's motivation from relegation danger, though their defensive frailties remained a real concern coming in. Strasbourg had carried stronger attacking numbers into the match, and they did get an early goal, but Nice's ability to respond and find two goals suggests they had more fight in them than the underlying form suggested. The model had leaned toward a tighter, lower-scoring affair shaped by Nice's weak home output and Strasbourg's inconsistent record, but the final scoreline — a one-goal win for the home side — fell outside that envelope.

It's a reminder that relegation-form pressure can still shift a match, even when the stats point elsewhere. Nice picked up three points they desperately needed; our prediction simply underweighted their capacity to turn it around once Strasbourg had their moment.