Niger vs Mauritania
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niger Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 31% | -3% |
| Draw Value | 15/8 2.90 | 32% | 44% | +12% |
| Mauritania Win | 13/8 2.65 | 34% | 25% | -9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Niger averaging 1.01 goals scored with moderate home form (DWL); Mauritania averaging just 0.31 goals scored with poor away record (LDDDLL)
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly with nothing at stake for either side — both mid-table African nations, low motivation context leans toward draw
Betting: Bookmaker odds split relatively evenly (Home 36%, Away 38%) with draw implied as a real possibility; low xG values (0.94 vs 0.75) support under 2.5 total goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Despite Mauritania's poor away scoring record, they have managed goals in recent fixtures (2-1, 1-1 results) and Niger's defense, while decent, has conceded in multiple recent games including 1-1 and 2-3 outcomes. The friendly context reduces defensive intensity, giving both sides a reasonable chance to find the net once each.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With Niger's xG at 0.94 and Mauritania's at 0.75, the combined expected goals sit well below 2.5. Both teams have low scoring averages, Mauritania in particular averaging just 0.31 goals scored per game. A 1-1 scoreline produces only 2 total goals, firmly under the 2.5 threshold, consistent with the low-scoring profile of both sides.