Norway vs France

France put on a clinical display to dismantle Norway 4-1 in this World Cup group-stage clash, with the visitors' quality eventually telling despite a spirited Norwegian effort. Ousmane Dembele was the star turn, bagging a first-half hat-trick that put the match beyond doubt. He opened the scoring in the 7th minute with help from Kylian Mbappé, then doubled his tally just 13 minutes later from the same playmaker's assist. Norway pulled one back through Aasgaard in the 21st minute, but Dembele struck again in the 32nd to make it 3-1 at the break. Larsen converted a penalty early in the second half to briefly suggest a comeback was on, only for Doué to seal it in stoppage time.

Our model leaned toward a 1-2 France win before kickoff, assigning the result a 61% probability among the three outcomes. The direction proved right — France won — but the scoreline got away from us. The pre-match picture had both sides capable of scoring freely, with Norway in decent form at home and France solid on the road, yet the gulf in execution turned out wider than expected. Dembele's clinical finishing and France's ruthless control in midfield simply overwhelmed the hosts' resistance. It's a reminder that even well-founded form trends and shot data can mask the raw talent gap on the night.