Norway vs Senegal

Norway defeated Senegal 3–2 in a World Cup group-stage match that swung decisively in the first half before a late Senegalese rally. Pedersen opened the scoring for Norway in the 43rd minute, then Haaland doubled the lead just after the interval with an assist from Odegaard. Senegal pulled one back through Sarr in the 53rd minute, assisted by Mane, but Haaland restored Norway's two-goal margin four minutes later with a second goal, this time set up by Berg. Sarr's second goal, assisted by Jackson, came deep into injury time at 90+3, but it proved too late to alter the outcome.

Before kickoff, our model leaned toward a Norway win with 56% probability, anchored on the home side's strong domestic form and goal-scoring average of 2.98 per match, offset by Senegal's weak away record and modest 1.29 goals-per-game output overall. The prediction of 2–1 captured that expected shape: a narrow Norway advantage with both teams contributing in attack. The actual 3–2 scoreline involved one additional goal compared to our forecast, and while the result direction aligned with our primary lean, the match played out with greater intensity at both ends than the model had weighted. Senegal's away defensive frailty was evident in the first half, yet they demonstrated enough second-half threat to register two goals—a level of attacking potency that stood above their pre-match averages and suggested heightened urgency in a tournament context where three points were essential.