Leeds made it count when it mattered. Nottingham Forest dominated for large stretches but couldn't find the breakthrough, and it cost them. A. Stach's goal in the 88th minute sealed a 1-0 win for Leeds, delivering the visitors a crucial three points in what had looked like a tight contest for most of the afternoon.

Our model's pre-match prediction of 1-0 didn't quite land the way we'd hoped — we had Leeds winning at exactly that scoreline, but it came with only 33% probability attached. The lean was actually toward Nottingham Forest at 42%, with a draw at 25%, so we were hedging across a fairly open market. The data pointed to a tight game: Forest looked solid at home, Leeds had some decent recent form but came carrying a heavy injury list in attack and midfield. History suggested goals would come — this fixture typically sees both sides find the net. We flagged under 2.5 as a possible angle, which played out, though the clean sheet didn't follow the pattern we'd noted in recent meetings.

What we misjudged was how the match would unfold tactically and where the goal would land. The winner arrived deep into the second half rather than early, and it came to the away side despite Forest's home advantage and stronger pre-match odds. That's football — probabilities aren't predictions, and 33% outcomes happen all the time. Leeds' clinical finish when their chance came was the difference on the night.