Nottingham Forest and Tottenham cancelled each other out in a stalemate that left both sides still hunting for momentum in their respective battles. A goalless draw wasn't what our model had in mind beforehand — we'd pencilled in a 1-2 scoreline with Spurs edging it — but the outcome does sit within the realm of plausible results we'd flagged. The draw carried a 26% probability in our pre-match assessment, so while it wasn't the favourite, it was far from a shock.

Both clubs came into this one under genuine pressure. Forest were operating with a thin margin above the relegation zone, and Spurs found themselves in even more precarious territory at the bottom. That desperation can often lead to cagey football, and that's partly what unfolded here. Our model had expected more cutting edge on the day, particularly given Spurs' recent attacking form and Forest's home ground, but defensive solidity won out. The fixture history suggested goals were likely — their head-to-head record tends to be an open affair — but neither side could find the breakthrough when it mattered.

The stalemate means both teams leave empty-handed in terms of three points, which neither could really afford. Forest stay fragile at the bottom end; Spurs remain in the mire. Our prediction leaned toward a Tottenham win because of their recent offensive threat, but we'd misjudged how tight this contest would turn out to be. Sometimes the form sheets and the averages don't translate on the pitch, and this was one of those nights.