📊 Recent Form
OFI
Bayer Leverkusen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bayer Leverkusen at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bayer Leverkusen at 52% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 77% — a gap against us of 25 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bayer Leverkusen cruised past OFI with a comfortable 2-0 victory in the Europa League, sealing the win through Jonas Hofmann's clinical finishing in the opening half hour. Hofmann struck twice in quick succession, first at the 35-minute mark before doubling the advantage just two minutes later courtesy of Malik Tillman's assist. The German side's dominance was evident from the start, and by the time the second goal went in, the tie was effectively settled.
Our model had tipped a 2-0 scoreline before kickoff, which landed exactly as the match unfolded. That prediction carried a 52% win probability for Leverkusen, making it our most likely outcome but hardly a stone-cold certainty — OFI still showed a respectable 26% chance to trouble them. The underlying xG data painted a clear picture going in: Leverkusen's 2.17 expected goals versus OFI's 0.81 suggested the visitors would press hard and create the clearer openings. That expectation held up comfortably over ninety minutes, with Hofmann's double reflecting the quality of chances the Bundesliga outfit manufactured.
The result moves Leverkusen through with minimal fuss and underlines why they came in as comfortable favourites. OFI, for their part, couldn't muster a meaningful response and will head home empty-handed after a performance that never quite got going against superior opposition.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Win Value | 10/1 11.00 | 9% | 26% | +17% |
| Draw Value | 11/2 6.63 | 14% | 22% | +8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 2/9 1.22 | 77% | 52% | -25% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 10 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Bayer Leverkusen (77% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: OFI xG 0.81 | Bayer Leverkusen xG 2.17
Projected: 11% / 20% / 69%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.