📊 Recent Form
OFI
CSKA Sofia
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. CSKA Sofia edge it at 43% against 25% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have CSKA Sofia at 43% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 37% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
OFI pulled off a comprehensive upset against CSKA Sofia in this Europa League knockout tie, winning 3-0 to overturn what looked like a tough assignment on paper. Fountas opened the scoring early in the 19th minute, then doubled his tally from the penalty spot just after the hour mark. With CSKA Sofia reduced to ten men following Brahimi's red card on 81 minutes, Dickmann added a third in stoppage time to seal a dominant performance.
Our model had this pegged as a 1-2 loss for OFI, leaning heavily toward CSKA Sofia at 43% win probability—a lean underpinned by their strong recent form and OFI's winless spell heading into the match. The designated home side's likelihood of victory sat at just 32%, so this was always a long shot in our eyes. The match didn't unfold that way at all. OFI's early intensity caught CSKA Sofia off guard, and once Fountas had them ahead, control stayed with the Greek side. The sending-off compounded CSKA Sofia's problems, but the foundation was already laid before then.
What's clear in hindsight is that our model weighted CSKA Sofia's strong run too heavily without fully accounting for the knockout pressure and the fact that form lines don't always translate neatly into Europa League battles. OFI showed up with a different mentality and execution than their recent results suggested they were capable of. The raw stats pointed one way; the actual football went another. That's football—and that's why these matches are played on the pitch, not in spreadsheets.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Win | 15/8 2.83 | 33% | 32% | -1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 30% | 25% | -5% |
| CSKA Sofia Win Value | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 43% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: OFI winless in 4 (LLLL), averaging 0.56 goals scored; CSKA Sofia on strong run (WLWWWDWDDW), averaging 2.53 goals scored
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — both sides fully motivated, elimination at stake; no dead-rubber discount applies
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant H2H trend available to influence prediction materially.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.