📊 Recent Form
OH Leuven
Antwerp
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Antwerp at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Antwerp at 47% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 38% — a gap in our favour of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
| Antwerp Win Value | 6/4 2.46 | 38% | 47% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: OH Leuven averaging just 1.01 goals scored with a 20% win rate overall; Antwerp averaging 1.27 goals with 30% win rate and solid away form WWLLD.
H2H: Antwerp dominant — 4 wins to 1 in last 8, most recent meeting was Antwerp 2-0 OH Leuven (Apr 2026); avg 2.6 goals per game.
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; both squads fully fit but no clear relegation/promotion motivation differential noted.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Antwerp have dominated this fixture with 4 wins in the last 8 meetings including a 2-0 win as recently as April 2026. Three draws also feature, suggesting OH Leuven can compete but the overall trend clearly favours Antwerp.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
