📊 Recent Form
OH Leuven
Genk
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Genk edge it at 39% against 29% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Genk at 39% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 50% — a gap against us of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven Win Value | 11/4 3.73 | 25% | 32% | +7% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.71 | 25% | 29% | +4% |
| Genk Win | 10/11 1.88 | 50% | 39% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: OH Leuven averaging 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded; Genk averaging 1.17 scored and only 0.82 conceded with DDWLDDWDWD run
H2H: Genk dominant — 5 wins vs 2 for OH Leuven in last 8; avg 2.9 goals per game; away team historically strong
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; both teams equal on ELO but Genk's superior defensive record and H2H edge give them the motivation edge in a potential Europa/title run-in context
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Genk have won 5 of the last 8 meetings including the three most recent competitive fixtures (excluding the Apr 2026 0-0 draw). Away-dominant pattern is consistent across multiple seasons with Genk winning both neutral and away fixtures convincingly.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.