📊 Recent Form
OH Leuven
Standard Liege
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Standard Liege edge it at 42% against 23% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Standard Liege at 42% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 39% — a gap in our favour of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven Win | 15/8 2.86 | 33% | 35% | +2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 23% | -5% |
| Standard Liege Win | 11/8 2.35 | 39% | 42% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 OH Leuven in relegation danger (P16/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: OH Leuven averaging 1.05 scored / 2.08 conceded, win% 33%; Standard Liege averaging 1.58 scored / 1.12 conceded, win% 50%
H2H: Standard Liege won last two meetings (3-1, 2-1); average 2 goals per game in last 8 H2H
Stakes: OH Leuven in relegation danger (P16/18) providing strong motivation; Standard Liege mid-table with normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Standard Liege have dominated recent H2H, winning last two meetings 3-1 and 2-1; overall H2H is relatively balanced across 8 games but momentum favours Standard. Average of 2 goals per H2H meeting keeps expectations moderate.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.