Omonia Nicosia turned this Europa League knockout into a rout, hammering St. Truiden 4-2 in a match that bore almost no resemblance to our pre-match forecast. Our model had predicted a tight 1-0 win for Omonia—a lean among plausible outcomes, sitting at 45% probability—but what unfolded was a far more open, goalmouth affair.

The game exploded early when Diony converted a penalty for Omonia in the 16th minute, then doubled the lead four minutes before half-time with an assist from Ewandro. St. Truiden pulled one back through Sebaoui's penalty kick on 33 minutes, but Omonia had the measure of the contest and added a third just after the restart, again through Diony with Ewandro setting him up. The designated home side looked to have wrapped it up when Panagiotou made it four on 82 minutes, courtesy of Coulibaly's assist. Sebaoui's second goal, assisted by Sissako in the 90th minute, proved only a consolation for the Belgian side.

Before kickoff, the model had expected a cautious, low-scoring affair—St. Truiden would prioritise defensive shape, Omonia would seek a narrow win to progress. Instead, we got an end-to-end contest with six goals and multiple set-piece conversions. Our model simply didn't account for how the match would open up once it got going, or for Diony's clinical finishing in front of goal. The call missed both the scoreline and the nature of the game, though we did get the result direction right.