📊 Recent Form
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Orlando City SC at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Orlando City SC pulled off a comeback win against Columbus Crew, running out 3-2 victors in an entertaining MLS clash. Harvey Graham Sarajian got them off to a flying start with a goal in the opening minute, assisted by Antoine Griezmann, but Columbus hit back quickly through Taha Habroune just six minutes later. Griezmann then put Orlando back in front at the 16-minute mark before Habroune's assist set up Brais Méndez to level things up in the 53rd minute. The hosts sealed it late on when Iván Angulo converted in the 89th minute after being set up by Martin Ojeda.
Our model leaned toward an Orlando win before kickoff—they had the slight edge at 45% to Columbus's 30%—but it predicted a tighter 2-1 scoreline rather than the 3-2 that actually played out. The model had weighted the fixture as plausible across several outcomes given the underlying numbers favored neither side decisively: expected goals sat pretty close (Orlando's 1.8 to Columbus's 1.6), and a draw was genuinely in play at 25%. In the end, we got the result direction right but miscalculated how open the match would be. Both sides found the net more often than the pre-match metrics suggested, turning what looked like a narrow contest into a high-scoring affair. Orlando's late breakthrough from Angulo proved the difference, but this wasn't a case of the stronger team simply dominating—it was a competitive game where the execution on the day outpaced what the underlying model had mapped out.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC Win | 1/1 2.05 | 45% | 45% | ±0% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 25% | +1% |
| Columbus Crew Win | 2/1 3.10 | 31% | 30% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Orlando City SC xG 1.8 | Columbus Crew xG 1.6
Projected: 42% / 25% / 33%
H2H: 2W-2D-4L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-2D-4L for Orlando City SC in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.