📊 Recent Form
Orlando City SC
San Diego
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Orlando City SC edge it at 40% against 28% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to San Diego while the probabilities favour Orlando City SC. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Orlando City SC at 40% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 45% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 52/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Orlando City SC got the job done with a 1-0 win over San Diego in a tighter affair than our model had anticipated. Griezmann broke the deadlock in the 28th minute with an assist from Ellis, and that single goal proved enough to settle things. It wasn't the kind of open, high-scoring game we'd flagged before kickoff.
Our model came into this one favouring San Diego at 32%, with Orlando at 40% to win and a 28% lean toward a draw. We'd projected a 1-2 scoreline, banking on San Diego's sharp away defensive record and the motivation boost that comes with chasing a European spot. The actual result — a 1-0 home win — fell outside that central forecast, though it wasn't entirely implausible given Orlando's home form and San Diego's travel logistics. The model simply weighted the visitors' defensive solidity and competitive hunger more heavily than the day's events bore out.
What made the difference was Orlando's ability to keep San Diego quiet. The visitors couldn't find the breakthrough despite their push for a result, and a single goal at the right moment was enough. Our model hadn't been wrong about the underlying conditions — both sides' form and defensive records were as advertised — but on this occasion the most likely outcome didn't happen. Football's like that sometimes. The forecast was reasonable; the match just went a different way.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC Win | 11/10 2.10 | 45% | 40% | -5% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 28% | +4% |
| San Diego Win | 2/1 3.04 | 31% | 32% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 San Diego in European race (P8)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Orlando averaging 2.08 scored / 1.87 conceded at home; San Diego averaging 2.01 scored / 1.21 conceded with a sharp away defensive record
H2H: Limited data — treating as neutral
Stakes: San Diego in European race (P8) providing meaningful motivation boost; Orlando mid-table with less urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant H2H trend available to influence prediction directionally.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.