📊 Recent Form
Çorum FK
Alanyaspor
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Çorum FK at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 30% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Çorum FK at 49% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 44% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 45/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alanyaspor came away from Çorum FK with a 2-1 victory in a match that unfolded in the second half after a goalless opening 45 minutes. Makouta broke the deadlock for the visitors in the 67th minute, assisted by Hadergjonaj, but Çorum FK leveled through Ramirez just nine minutes later, with Kyziridis providing the assist. That parity lasted only three minutes—Usluoglu restored Alanyaspor's lead in the 79th minute to seal the win.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline heading into kickoff, though it assigned just a 21% probability to an Alanyaspor victory. The result landed outside our favored outcome. Before the match, the model had leaned toward a Çorum FK win based on their prolific home attack, while flagging Alanyaspor's restrained away scoring record and the low immediate pressure both sides faced as mid-table teams. The match itself played out as a genuine contest rather than settling the question early—it came down to a late second-half sequence that went against the model's central lean. That's football, and it's exactly why predictions come with probabilities rather than certainties.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK Win Value | 11/10 2.10 | 44% | 49% | +5% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.28 | 29% | 30% | +1% |
| Alanyaspor Win | 5/2 3.42 | 27% | 21% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Çorum FK mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for Çorum FK, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Çorum FK home record mixed (WL) but overall attack prolific; Alanyaspor away form WLD with restrained scoring (1.55 avg goals)
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Both sides mid-table with low immediate pressure, though Alanyaspor (P8) retain mild top-half motivation; Çorum FK flagged dead-rubber reducing urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.