📊 Recent Form
Osasuna
Espanyol
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Osasuna at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 33% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 12 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Osasuna at home is a different beast, and their recent form backs that up — they've won four of their last six, and they're playing in front of their own fans here. Espanyol are sitting comfortably mid-table with not a lot to play for, which rarely brings out the best in anyone, and their form over the last ten has been patchy at best. The numbers heavily favour Osasuna, and with both teams expected to keep it tight and goals scarce, a narrow home win is the most logical outcome.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna Win | 1/1 2.01 | 47% | 45% | -2% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.33 | 28% | 33% | +5% |
| Espanyol Win | 11/4 3.83 | 25% | 22% | -3% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Espanyol mid-table (P12) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Osasuna avg 1.2 scored/1.51 conceded; Espanyol avg 1.29 scored/1.18 conceded — both sides low-moderate scorers
H2H: 4 draws in last 8, avg 1.4 goals/game, recent 1-2 and 0-0 outcomes confirm tight fixture
Stakes: Espanyol P12 with low motivation; Osasuna P8 with nothing urgent — both sides trending toward a comfortable low-intensity draw
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
4 draws in last 8 meetings with average of 1.4 goals per game; fixture is consistently tight and low-scoring with neither side dominating; most recent meetings include a 1-2, 0-0, and 1-1
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
