📊 Recent Form
Osasuna
Espanyol
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Osasuna at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 34% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Espanyol came to El Sadar and turned in a ruthless away performance to claim a 2-0 victory over Osasuna, with Roberto Fernández Jaén's quick double settling the contest before the match was half an hour old. He opened the scoring in the third minute with an assist from Marcos Fernández, then added his second fourteen minutes later after being teed up by Omar El Hilali. Once Espanyol got their noses in front early, Osasuna couldn't find a way back into it.
Our model pegged this as a tight game, leaning toward Osasuna with a 1-0 prediction and giving Espanyol just a 21 percent chance of winning outright. That didn't pan out. The historical pattern here—four draws in the last eight meetings and an average of 1.4 goals per game—suggested a low-scoring, scrappy fixture where a single goal would likely decide things. The setup looked right: Osasuna carrying decent home form but prone to defensive slips, Espanyol inconsistent on their travels. What didn't materialize was the narrow scoreline. Instead, Espanyol's visiting side produced a clinical first half, cut through Osasuna's backline twice, and left nothing to chance. Sometimes the tightest fixtures surprise you with a convincing result, and this was one of those nights.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna Win | 6/5 2.19 | 43% | 45% | +2% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 30% | 34% | +4% |
| Espanyol Win | 5/2 3.56 | 27% | 21% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Espanyol mid-table (P12) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Osasuna in decent home form (WDLW) but leaky at back; Espanyol inconsistent away but capable of a point
H2H: 4 draws in last 8, avg 1.4 goals — a historically tight, low-scoring fixture
Stakes: Osasuna P8 (normal motivation), Espanyol P12 (low motivation — mid-table drift)
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Draw-prone series — 4 draws, 2 Osasuna wins, 2 Espanyol wins in last 8; recent May 2026 meeting ended 1-2 to Espanyol showing both teams can score but margins are small
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
